Andiana Foundation Events

On March 31, 2026, the Andiana Foundation convened a panel of regional experts to discuss the ongoing conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan. The discussion focused on the causes of escalation, the limits of military responses, and the challenges facing diplomatic efforts. A key point raised by panelists was the failure of Pakistan’s strategy toward the Taliban. Since their return to power in 2021, the relationship between the Afghan Taliban and Pakistan has shifted from cooperation and support to growing tension and hostility. This change has reduced Pakistan’s influence in Afghanistan and contributed to rising tensions. The most immediate driver of the conflict is the threat posed by Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which Pakistan claims operates from Afghan territory, with the Afghan Taliban providing sanctuary and support. According to one of the panelists, more than 130 Pakistani civilians were killed in the first three months of 2026, following approximately 400 deaths in 2025. Pakistan’s expectation that the Taliban would contain the TTP has not been met, contributing to the current conflict. Pakistan has responded with cross-border airstrikes targeting alleged TTP outposts in Afghanistan. Panelists noted that these actions raise serious legal concerns under international law, including violations of sovereignty, restrictions on the use of force, and protections for civilians. Some strikes reportedly hit civilian sites, including a rehabilitation center in Kabul, killing hundreds of civilians. The Taliban’s limited capacity to govern and defend the country adds another layer of complexity to the conflict. Afghanistan lacks effective airspace control, modern detection systems, and the ability to respond to a more advanced military. Borders remain relatively open, allowing militant groups to move between countries with ease. This imbalance limits the Taliban’s ability to manage security threats or respond to external pressure. Regional dynamics also play a role. India has increased its engagement with the Taliban through diplomatic outreach and humanitarian assistance. While this is not a direct cause of the conflict, Pakistan views it as a strategic concern and a clear sign of its declining influence in Afghanistan. Efforts to mitigate tensions between the two countries have not produced meaningful results. Talks involving Qatar, Turkey, and other actors have stalled due to disagreements over core issues. Pakistan has called for concrete action against the TTP and formal commitments, while the Taliban have rejected these demands, describing the issue as Pakistan’s problem to solve. Although a temporary ceasefire is in place, the situation remains unstable. At the same time, weak international coordination on Afghanistan policy reduces the effectiveness of diplomatic pressure. The human cost of the conflict is significant. Civilian casualties on both sides continue to rise, and conditions in Afghanistan remain fragile. Panelists agreed that military action is unlikely to resolve the underlying issues. Instead, they emphasized the need for sustained dialogue and greater international engagement. Without progress in diplomacy and coordination, the risk of further escalation remains high, along with continued harm to civilians and regional stability.